Ever since the dawn of democracy, political scientists have been searching for the fundamental axes that best define our political beliefs. Are you progressive or conservative? Authoritarian or liberal? Do you favour small or big government? In order to represent such divisions, graphical representations known as “political compasses” have been created, which show where different people lie according to a set of questions that are believed to best characterise the political debate and capture the orientation of an individual.
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Traditionally, all these compasses are built using 2 axis: a horizontal left-right econonomic scale, and a vertical authoritarian-libertarian social scale. But do these axes really define accurately the political divide of today, when political affiliations are shifting and traditional sticking points no longer hold?
To find it out, we analyze Quotebank, a dataset of ~180 milion quotations extracted from english news articles published between 2008 and 2020. Let’s begin our journey!
What dominates the political debate?
For simplicity, we decided to focus only on quotes attributed to alive American politicians, published between 2015 and 2020. We decided to focus only on the US to reduce the impact of local, country-specific topics, and to have a well-known framework of investigation as the US political system is. After filtering with above criteria, we are left with 9.5 million quotes from 14’000 different speakers. Let’s now have a look at what it is that these politicians talk about – but before we do, let’s see who they are.
The Silent Majority
Looking at the politicians with the most quotes, we can see evidence of what statisticians call a “power law” (commonly also known as the 80-20 rule): few most quoted politicians completely dominate the debate, in spite of all the others. The most quoted politician, Donald Trump, accounts alone for almost 8% of all the quotes. To understand just how dominant that is, consider that if the quotes were uniformly distributed among our 14k politicians, an average politician should only account for 0.007% of the quotes! Indeed, our data even trump the 80-20 rule, as the top 20% of politicians account for almost 88% of the quotes. This shows that, in today’s world, few of the loudest politicians completely dominate media coverage, while the majority of politicians are given very little attention. Hence, we are seeing confirmation of the existence of a silent majority that does not express its views publicly, or does so with little to no coverage.